Why Singapore’s Economic Strategy Matters in a Fragmented World

 

Illustration showing Singapore as a global economic hub connected to ASEAN, the US, China, and Europe, representing economic security and regional cooperation.
Singapore’s strategic model combines economic strength, credible defence, and regional cooperation to navigate a fragmented global economy.(Representing ai image)

Economic Success, Security, and Regional Cooperation: Why Singapore’s Strategy Matters in a Fragmented World

- Dr. Sanjaykumar Pawar


Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. The Global Economic Context: A World in Strategic Flux
  3. Why Economic Success Is the First Line of National Security
  4. Defence Spending and the Role of a ‘Credible’ SAF
  5. Regional Cooperation: ASEAN as Singapore’s Strategic Multiplier
  6. Resisting the Pressure to Pick Sides: Economic Rationality Over Ideology
  7. Trade, Rules, and the Fear of a “Law of the Jungle”
  8. Small States, Big Agency: How Singapore Shapes Its Fate
  9. Lessons from Global Crises: GFC, COVID-19, and Economic Resilience
  10. Data Snapshot: Singapore’s Economy, Defence, and Trade Networks
  11. Policy Implications for Other Small and Medium Economies
  12. Conclusion: The Singapore Model in Today’s Uncertain World
  13. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ – Schema Ready)
  14. References and Sources

1. Introduction

In January 2026, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong articulated a reality that many countries—especially small states—are grappling with today: economic success, credible defence, and regional cooperation are no longer optional; they are existential necessities.

Speaking at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute’s Regional Outlook Forum 2026, SM Lee highlighted how Singapore navigates a world marked by great-power rivalry, weakening global trade rules, geopolitical conflicts, and economic fragmentation.

This blog examines why Singapore’s strategy is economically sound, geopolitically pragmatic, and increasingly relevant for nations worldwide. It also explains complex global dynamics in simple terms, using data, analogies, and real-world example.


2. The Global Economic Context: A World in Strategic Flux

The global economic context is undergoing a profound transformation. What once felt like a predictable, rules-based system is now shaped by power politics, strategic competition, and growing uncertainty. For governments, businesses, and especially small open economies like Singapore, navigating this environment requires agility, foresight, and resilience.

Think of the world economy as a river with competing currents—still moving forward, but no longer flowing in one clear direction.

Key Forces Reshaping the Global Economy

  • US–China Rivalry Redefining Global Trade
    The intensifying US–China rivalry is no longer limited to tariffs. It now spans technology, semiconductors, data, artificial intelligence, and supply chains. Countries and companies are increasingly pressured to choose sides, fragmenting what was once an integrated global market.

  • A Weakened World Trade Organization (WTO)
    The WTO, once the anchor of global trade governance, has lost much of its enforcement power. Dispute resolution mechanisms are stalled, and countries are more willing to bypass multilateral rules in favor of national interest-driven policies.

  • Rise of Sanctions and Export Controls
    Economic tools are now widely used as strategic weapons. Sanctions, export bans, and investment restrictions are no longer exceptional—they are becoming routine. This creates uncertainty for global businesses and disrupts long-established supply chains.

  • Regional Conflicts with Global Economic Impact
    Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions are no longer just political crises. They affect energy prices, food security, shipping routes, and inflation worldwide, tying geopolitics directly to economic decision-making.

Why This Environment Is Risky for Small Open Economies

For small, trade-dependent economies like Singapore, this strategic flux is especially challenging:

  • Heavy reliance on global trade makes them vulnerable to disruptions
  • Limited ability to influence major power decisions
  • Exposure to sudden regulatory changes, tariffs, or sanctions
  • Increased pressure to balance relationships with competing global powers

Analogy:
If global trade once functioned like a well-regulated highway system, today it increasingly resembles uncharted roads with shifting rules, where powerful drivers can suddenly block lanes, impose tolls, or change directions without warning.

The Bigger Picture

This new global economic reality is not about deglobalization, but re-globalization under new rules. Economic efficiency is being replaced by strategic security. Trust is giving way to caution. Flexibility now matters as much as scale.

For policymakers and businesses alike, understanding this world in strategic flux is no longer optional—it is essential for survival and long-term growth.


3. Why Economic Success Is the First Line of National Security

Economic strength is often discussed in terms of growth and prosperity, but its deeper role is far more fundamental. As SM Lee once stated bluntly yet truthfully:
“If you are broke and poor, you do not have the means to act.”
This insight captures a core reality of modern geopolitics—economic success is the foundation of national security.

In today’s volatile global environment, wealth is not a luxury. It is capacity, influence, and resilience.

Why the Economy Comes First

A strong economy gives a nation the ability to protect itself, adapt to change, and safeguard its people. Economic success allows a country to:

  • Fund Defence and Security
    Modern defence systems, cybersecurity, intelligence capabilities, and disaster preparedness require sustained investment. Without a strong economic base, national security becomes reactive rather than strategic.

  • Invest in Education and Innovation
    Long-term security depends on talent and technology. Countries that invest in education, research, and innovation build future-ready workforces and reduce dependence on external powers.

  • Maintain Social Stability
    Economic opportunity reduces inequality, unemployment, and social unrest. A stable society is harder to destabilize through external pressure, misinformation, or political interference.

  • Absorb External Shocks
    Global crises—pandemics, financial crashes, supply chain disruptions, or wars—test national resilience. Strong economies recover faster and protect vulnerable populations during downturns.

Singapore: Prosperity as Strategic Autonomy

For Singapore, economic success is not just about high living standards—it is about strategic autonomy. As a small, open economy with limited natural resources, Singapore’s ability to make independent decisions depends on economic credibility and fiscal strength.

Data Insight:

  • Singapore’s GDP per capita remains among the highest globally, reflecting productivity and competitiveness
  • Trade exceeds 300% of GDP, highlighting the nation’s deep integration with the global economy
  • Strong fiscal reserves allow Singapore to deploy support packages during crises without compromising long-term stability

These factors give Singapore room to maneuver in a world shaped by major power rivalry and economic weaponization.

The Security-Economy Link in a Changing World

In an era where sanctions, supply chain controls, and technology restrictions are common, economic weakness becomes a national vulnerability. Countries with fragile economies are more easily pressured, influenced, or destabilized.

Economic strength, therefore, is not separate from security policy—it is security policy.

National security no longer begins at the border. It begins in balance sheets, classrooms, innovation labs, and trade networks. For nations like Singapore, economic success is the first and most critical line of defence.

GDP Per Capita vs Defence Spending

GDP Per Capita vs Defence Spending (% of GDP)

📊 
Bar chart showing GDP per capita vs defence spending capacity across small economies.


4. Defence Spending and the Role of a ‘Credible’ SAF

In an increasingly uncertain world, national defence is no longer optional—it is a necessity. For Singapore, this reality has shaped defence policy for decades. The country spends around 3% of GDP on defence, consistently and deliberately, regardless of economic cycles or political changes. This long-term commitment reflects a clear understanding: security underpins survival.

For a small nation with no strategic depth, defence spending is not about power projection—it is about credibility.

Why Defence Spending Matters for Singapore

Singapore’s defence approach is rooted in realism. With limited land, airspace, and manpower, the country cannot afford complacency. Consistent investment ensures that the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) remains technologically advanced, well-trained, and operationally ready.

Defence spending supports:

  • Modern equipment and platforms
  • Continuous training and readiness
  • Cyber and digital defence capabilities
  • Strong integration across land, sea, air, and information domains

This readiness sends a clear signal to both friends and potential adversaries: Singapore takes its security seriously.

Why “Credibility” Matters More Than Size

A credible military does not mean an aggressive one. Credibility is about capability, professionalism, and restraint. It ensures that Singapore is respected, not feared.

A credible SAF provides:

  • Deterrence Rather Than Provocation
    When defence capabilities are strong and visible, potential threats are less likely to test boundaries. Deterrence prevents conflict before it begins.

  • Protection of Sovereignty
    Credibility ensures Singapore can defend its airspace, waters, and digital infrastructure without relying on external actors.

  • Confidence for Investors and Partners
    Economic success depends on stability. Investors and global partners are more willing to commit when they trust that a country can protect its interests and maintain order.

Defence as Insurance

Analogy:
Defence is like insurance. You hope never to use it—but without it, the cost of a crisis becomes unbearable. Once conflict breaks out, it is already too late to build capability.

This philosophy explains why Singapore maintains steady defence spending even during peacetime. Security cannot be switched on overnight.

SAF’s Role in Regional Stability

SM Lee has consistently emphasized that the SAF exists to keep Singapore safe, not to threaten others. This distinction is critical in Southeast Asia, where trust and balance shape regional diplomacy.

The SAF’s professionalism, transparency, and participation in humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and multilateral exercises reinforce Singapore’s image as a responsible and stabilizing partner.

Defence spending is not a cost—it is an investment in peace, stability, and sovereignty. For Singapore, a credible SAF is not about dominance, but about ensuring that the nation remains secure, respected, and free to chart its own future.


5. Regional Cooperation: ASEAN as Singapore’s Strategic Multiplier

Singapore has always understood one fundamental truth: it cannot survive alone. As a small, open economy in a complex geopolitical environment, its strength is amplified through partnerships. Among these, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) stands out as Singapore’s most important strategic multiplier—economically, diplomatically, and politically.

Regional cooperation does not dilute Singapore’s influence; it magnifies it.

Why ASEAN Matters to Singapore

ASEAN provides Singapore with scale, relevance, and strategic depth that it cannot achieve independently. Acting as part of a regional bloc gives Singapore a stronger voice in global affairs and greater resilience against external shocks.

ASEAN’s Economic Role

From an economic perspective, ASEAN is indispensable. It provides:

  • Market Access to Over 660 Million People
    ASEAN represents one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing consumer markets. This scale attracts global investors and allows Singapore-based companies to grow beyond domestic limits.

  • Collective Bargaining Power
    As a bloc, ASEAN negotiates trade agreements with major economies such as China, the EU, and partners in the Indo-Pacific. This collective leverage helps protect smaller member states from being sidelined in global trade negotiations.

  • Platforms for Dialogue Amid Geopolitical Tension
    ASEAN-led forums create neutral spaces where major powers can engage without confrontation. In an era of US–China rivalry, this convening power is strategically valuable.

ASEAN as a Strategic Buffer

For Singapore, ASEAN acts as a buffer against great power competition. Rather than being forced to align fully with one side, Singapore benefits from ASEAN’s principle of neutrality and consensus. This allows the region to remain open, inclusive, and economically connected.

The Limits of ASEAN Cooperation

Despite its strengths, ASEAN is not perfect—and Singapore remains realistic about its limitations.

  • Intra-ASEAN trade accounts for only about 20% of total trade, highlighting weak internal integration
  • The region remains heavily dependent on external partners such as the US, China, and the EU
  • Differences in political systems, development levels, and national interests slow decision-making

These constraints mean ASEAN often moves cautiously, especially during crises.

Why ASEAN Still Matters—Even With Its Flaws

ASEAN’s value lies not in speed or uniformity, but in stability and inclusiveness. It keeps regional competition from escalating into conflict and ensures Southeast Asia remains open to trade, investment, and dialogue.

For Singapore, ASEAN is not a shield—it is a force multiplier.

In a fragmented global economy, regional unity matters more than ever. By anchoring itself firmly within ASEAN, Singapore gains scale, relevance, and strategic breathing space. Alone, Singapore is small. Within ASEAN, it is stronger, safer, and more influential.

ASEAN Trade: Intra-ASEAN vs External Partners

📊 
Pie chart of ASEAN trade: intra-ASEAN vs external partners.


6. Resisting the Pressure to Pick Sides: Economic Rationality Over Ideology

In an era defined by great-power competition, pressure to take sides has become a constant reality for small states. One of SM Lee’s most striking arguments is that choosing sides too quickly—or emotionally—can be strategically damaging. For Singapore, neutrality is not moral hesitation. It is economic rationality.

This approach is rooted in realism, not ideology.

The Reality of Great-Power Competition

When major powers compete, smaller countries often find themselves caught in the middle. In such situations:

  • Both sides want you aligned to strengthen their strategic position
  • Neither wants you fully independent, as autonomy limits influence
  • Picking one side often closes economic doors, sometimes permanently

Once alignment is declared, policy flexibility disappears. Trade, investment, technology access, and diplomacy become constrained by loyalty rather than national interest.

Why Neutrality Is the Rational Choice

For Singapore, neutrality is about maximizing options. It allows the country to adapt as global conditions change, rather than being locked into a single geopolitical trajectory.

Neutrality enables Singapore to:

  • Maintain trade and investment flows with multiple major economies
  • Reduce vulnerability to sanctions or retaliatory measures
  • Preserve credibility as an honest broker in regional and global forums
  • Make decisions based on rules and principles, not pressure

This strategy ensures Singapore remains relevant and connected, even as global fault lines deepen.

Economic Rationality Over Ideological Alignment

Ideological alignment may offer short-term comfort, but it often comes at a high long-term cost. Economic rationality focuses on outcomes—jobs, growth, stability, and resilience—rather than symbolic gestures.

For a small, open economy where trade exceeds 300% of GDP, shutting doors is not an option. Economic openness is not just policy; it is survival.

A Practical Example: Sanctioning Russia

Singapore’s response to the Ukraine conflict illustrates this balanced approach. Singapore imposed sanctions on Russia based on principle, citing the importance of sovereignty and international law.

At the same time, Singapore clarified that this action did not make Russia an “enemy.”

This distinction matters.

  • It upholds international norms
  • It avoids moral ambiguity
  • It preserves diplomatic space for future engagement

By separating principle from hostility, Singapore demonstrated that neutrality does not mean silence, and action does not require enmity.

Strategic Flexibility in a Fragmented World

In a world where economic tools are weaponized and alliances shift rapidly, strategic flexibility is power. Neutrality allows Singapore to remain agile, credible, and resilient.

Resisting pressure to pick sides is not weakness—it is wisdom. By choosing economic rationality over ideology, Singapore protects its interests, preserves its independence, and keeps its future options open in an increasingly divided global economy.


7. Trade, Rules, and the Fear of a “Law of the Jungle”

The global trading system is entering a dangerous phase. As World Trade Organization (WTO) mechanisms weaken, the risk is a slide toward a “law of the jungle”—a world where power, not principles, determines outcomes. For small states like Singapore, this shift poses serious economic and strategic risks.

Rules-based trade once offered protection and predictability. Today, that protection is no longer guaranteed.

The Risks of Power-Based Trade

When global trade rules erode, economic relationships begin to favor strength over fairness. In such an environment:

  • Bigger economies dictate terms, often unilaterally
  • Smaller states face coercion, both economic and political
  • Rules become optional, applied selectively when convenient

This creates uncertainty for businesses, disrupts supply chains, and discourages long-term investment. For trade-dependent economies, the consequences can be severe.

Why This Matters to Singapore

Singapore thrives in a system where rules matter more than size. With no domestic market to fall back on and trade exceeding its GDP many times over, unpredictability is an existential risk.

If global trade becomes purely power-driven, small economies lose their ability to plan, negotiate, and grow on fair terms.

Singapore’s Strategic Response: Overlapping Trade Networks

Rather than relying on a single global system, Singapore has adopted a strategy of trade diversification and redundancy. It builds overlapping trade networks to reduce dependence on any one framework or partner.

These include:

  • ASEAN, providing regional integration and collective strength
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), linking major Asia-Pacific economies
  • Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), promoting dialogue and economic cooperation
  • Bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with key partners worldwide

Each agreement reinforces the others, creating multiple channels for trade and investment.

Trade Resilience Through Redundancy

Analogy:
Instead of relying on one bridge, Singapore builds multiple bridges across rivers. If one collapses due to political tension or policy shifts, trade can continue flowing through alternative routes.

This approach reduces vulnerability, enhances bargaining power, and preserves access to global markets even during periods of disruption.

Beyond Economics: A Strategic Signal

Singapore’s commitment to rules-based trade also sends a message. It signals reliability, consistency, and openness—qualities that attract investors and strengthen diplomatic trust.

At the same time, diversified trade networks give Singapore flexibility in a fragmented global economy.

The fear of a “law of the jungle” is real, but it is not inevitable. By reinforcing rules where possible and building multiple trade pathways, Singapore protects its economic future. In a world where power is rising, resilience lies in connectivity, diversification, and strategic foresight.


8. Small States, Big Agency: How Singapore Shapes Its Fate

There is a common myth in global politics that small states are merely spectators, forced to react to decisions made by larger powers. SM Lee’s statement—“Small states have agency”—directly challenges this assumption. While small countries may not control global outcomes, they are far from powerless. Agency lies in how they act, where they engage, and what principles they consistently uphold.

For Singapore, agency is strategic, not symbolic.

What Agency Really Means for Small States

Agency does not mean dominating international affairs. Instead, it means:

  • Influencing norms by supporting rules, standards, and frameworks that level the playing field
  • Shaping coalitions with like-minded countries to amplify collective influence
  • Protecting national interests smartly through credibility, competence, and consistency

In a fragmented world, influence comes not from size, but from trust and relevance.

Singapore’s Strategy: Voice Over Volume

Singapore has built a reputation as a country whose voice carries weight because it is principled, informed, and predictable. It does not speak often for attention—but when it does, it is listened to.

This approach allows Singapore to contribute meaningfully in global forums where ideas, not force, shape outcomes.

Platforms Where Singapore Exercises Agency

Singapore’s active participation in international institutions demonstrates how small states can shape discussions and outcomes:

  • Climate Negotiations
    Despite its small size, Singapore contributes policy expertise, technological solutions, and pragmatic perspectives that bridge developed and developing economies.

  • WTO Reform Discussions
    As a strong supporter of rules-based trade, Singapore advocates reforms that restore fairness and functionality, helping protect smaller economies from power-based trade practices.

  • UN Forum of Small States
    This platform allows small nations to coordinate positions, share experiences, and strengthen collective bargaining power on global issues.

Through these forums, Singapore multiplies its influence by working with others who share similar interests.

Why Credibility Matters More Than Size

Singapore’s agency rests on three pillars:

  • Voice – Clear, thoughtful, and principled positions
  • Credibility – Policies aligned with words, domestically and internationally
  • Consistency – Long-term commitment to rules, openness, and cooperation

When these elements align, even small states can shape agendas and influence outcomes.

Final Thought

In today’s world, power is no longer measured only in territory or population. It is measured in ideas, trust, and networks. Singapore’s experience proves that small states do have agency—not by confronting power directly, but by navigating it intelligently and shaping the environment in which power operates.

Size may limit options, but strategy defines destiny.


9. Lessons from Global Crises: GFC, COVID-19, and Economic Resilience

Global crises test not just economic systems, but governance, institutions, and social cohesion. During SM Lee’s premiership, two major “black swan” events reshaped Singapore’s economic strategy and reinforced a powerful lesson: economic resilience is built long before a crisis hits.

These events—the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic—highlighted how preparation, trust, and decisive leadership matter as much as financial resources.

1. Global Financial Crisis (2008)

The 2008 GFC triggered a sudden and severe collapse in global demand. As trade and financial flows froze, open economies like Singapore were hit hard and fast.

Singapore’s response focused on speed and adaptability:

  • Swift Fiscal Stimulus
    The government deployed substantial stimulus packages to support businesses, protect jobs, and stabilize the economy.

  • Workforce Retraining Programs
    Instead of accepting long-term unemployment, Singapore invested in reskilling and upskilling workers, helping them transition into new industries.

  • Institutional Coordination
    Ministries, unions, and employers worked closely to manage wage adjustments and job retention, preventing social dislocation.

The outcome was a faster recovery and a stronger post-crisis labor market.

2. COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 crisis was different in nature but equally disruptive. Global supply chains broke down, borders closed, and uncertainty became universal.

Singapore’s response again demonstrated economic resilience:

  • Supply Chain Disruptions Managed Through Diversification
    Singapore worked to keep trade lanes open and secure essential imports, reinforcing the importance of economic openness.

  • Massive Public Health Spending
    Resources were rapidly mobilized for testing, vaccination, healthcare capacity, and business support.

  • Strong Social Trust Enabled Compliance
    Public trust in institutions ensured high compliance with health measures, reducing long-term economic damage and allowing a safer reopening.

The Core Lesson: Resilience Is Not Just About Money

Key Lesson:
Economic resilience depends as much on public trust and institutional strength as on fiscal capacity.

Strong reserves matter—but they are only effective when combined with:

  • Credible leadership
  • Transparent communication
  • Capable public institutions
  • Social cohesion and shared responsibility

Without trust, even the largest stimulus packages fail to deliver results.

Why This Matters for the Future

As future crises—climate shocks, geopolitical disruptions, and technological shifts—become more frequent, resilience will define success. Singapore’s experience shows that resilience is a system, not a single policy.

The GFC and COVID-19 were not just economic shocks—they were stress tests. Singapore emerged stronger because it invested early in institutions, trust, and adaptability. In an uncertain world, economic resilience is the ultimate competitive advantage.


10. Data Snapshot: Singapore’s Economy, Defence, and Trade Networks

Indicator Approximate Value
Defence Spending ~3% of GDP
Trade to GDP Ratio ~300%
Intra-ASEAN Trade ~20%
Key Trade Partners US, China, EU, ASEAN

Singapore at the Center of ASEAN Trade

Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand

📊 
Infographic showing Singapore at the center of overlapping trade circles.


11. Policy Implications for Other Small and Medium Economies

In an increasingly fragmented and competitive global system, small and medium-sized economies face rising pressure from geopolitical rivalry, trade disruptions, and security risks. Singapore’s experience offers valuable, adaptable lessons—not as a template to copy, but as a strategic mindset that other countries can tailor to their own realities.

These lessons are especially relevant for countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, and South Asia, where economic openness and political autonomy must be carefully balanced.

1. Economic Openness Must Be Strategic, Not Naive

Open economies grow faster—but only when openness is managed wisely. Singapore shows that trade liberalization should be paired with:

  • Diversified trade partners
  • Strong domestic institutions
  • Active participation in trade rules and standards

Blind openness creates vulnerability. Strategic openness creates resilience and optionality, allowing countries to adapt when global conditions shift.

2. Defence Credibility Supports Diplomacy, Not Undermines It

A credible defence posture does not signal aggression. It signals self-respect and seriousness.

Singapore’s approach demonstrates that:

  • Defence capability deters coercion
  • Security credibility strengthens negotiating power
  • Diplomacy is more effective when backed by readiness

For small and medium economies, even modest but professional defence capabilities can prevent external pressure and preserve policy independence.

3. Regionalism Complements Globalism—It Does Not Replace It

Singapore’s deep involvement in ASEAN shows that regional cooperation amplifies national influence.

Key takeaways include:

  • Regional blocs provide scale and bargaining power
  • Regional stability attracts investment
  • Collective platforms reduce vulnerability to great-power rivalry

At the same time, regionalism works best when it complements—not substitutes—global engagement. Regional ties should expand access, not limit it.

4. Neutrality Requires Strength, Not Passivity

Neutrality is often misunderstood as weakness. In reality, effective neutrality demands strength—economic, institutional, and diplomatic.

Singapore’s experience highlights that neutrality requires:

  • Economic resilience to withstand pressure
  • Clear principles anchored in international norms
  • Consistent and credible foreign policy positions

Without strength, neutrality collapses under pressure.

Adapting These Lessons Across Regions

Countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, and South Asia operate under different histories and constraints. However, the underlying principles remain relevant:

  • Build economic resilience before crises hit
  • Invest in institutions and public trust
  • Diversify partnerships to preserve autonomy

In today’s world, size does not determine success—strategy does. Singapore’s journey shows that small and medium economies can protect their interests, shape their futures, and remain independent by combining openness with strength, and pragmatism with principle.


12. Conclusion: The Singapore Model in Today’s Uncertain World

Singapore’s approach—economic strength, credible defence, and diversified partnerships—is not about dominance. It is about survival with dignity.

In an era where global rules are contested and power politics resurfaces, Singapore shows that small states can still shape their destiny—if they invest wisely, think long-term, and resist false choices.

As SM Lee implicitly reminds us:

Economic success is not just about growth—it is about freedom.


13. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1. Why is economic success linked to national security?

Economic strength funds defence, diplomacy, and social stability, enabling countries to respond effectively to crises.

Q2. Why does Singapore spend around 3% of GDP on defence?

This ensures a credible deterrent, protects sovereignty, and reassures investors and citizens.

Q3. Why doesn’t Singapore choose sides between the US and China?

Choosing sides limits options. Strategic neutrality maximizes trade, diplomacy, and autonomy.

Q4. How important is ASEAN for Singapore?

ASEAN amplifies Singapore’s influence, provides regional stability, and strengthens economic resilience.

Q5. Can small states really influence global outcomes?

Yes. Through coalitions, credibility, and consistency, small states can shape norms and protect interests.



14. References and Sources

  1. ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Regional Outlook Forum 2026
    https://www.iseas.edu.sg

  2. Channel NewsAsia (CNA), January 8, 2026 coverage of SM Lee’s dialogue
    https://www.channelnewsasia.com

  3. World Trade Organization (WTO)
    https://www.wto.org

  4. ASEAN Secretariat
    https://asean.org

  5. Singapore Ministry of Defence (MINDEF)
    https://www.mindef.gov.sg


This article reflects an economic analysis perspective aimed at simplifying global complexities while remaining grounded in data and policy realities.

— Dr. Sanjaykumar Pawar 









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