As global trade routes fracture under the pressure of tariffs and geopolitics, growth forecasts are being downgraded worldwide. Global Growth Forecast Downgraded Amid Trade Fragmentation: Unpacking the Risks to 2025 and Beyond - Dr.Sanjaykumar pawar Table of Contents Introduction: A Warning from the World Bank What Is Trade Fragmentation & Why It Matters From Optimism to Caution: The Growth Outlook Shifts Drivers Behind the Downgrade Escalating Tariffs & Trade Barriers Policy Uncertainty & Investment Pullback Supply Chains, Decoupling & Blocs Debt, Inflation & Financial Frictions Regional Impacts: Latin America, South Asia & Beyond Renewables, Energy Transition, and Economic Momentum Modeling the Costs: Data, Estimates & Scenarios Policy Responses & Strategic Options Looking Ahead: Risks, Opportunities & a Fragile Recovery Conclusion: Charting a More Cooperative Path FAQ Sources & Further Reading 1. Introduction: A W...
Markets Rally on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes: What Weak U.S. Jobs Data Really Means for Stocks, Bonds, and Your Portfolio - Dr. Sanjay kumar pawar Weak U.S. jobs data sharpened expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon—sending stocks up and bond yields down. This in-depth analysis breaks down the data, explains the market mechanics, shows where opportunities and risks lie, and answers common investor questions. Sources: BLS, Federal Reserve, CME, Reuters, Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury. Table of Contents Executive Summary What Just Happened: The Data That Moved Markets Why “Bad News” Sparked a Rally: The Rate-Cut Transmission Mechanism The Bond Market’s Signal: Yields, Term Premiums, and Duration Equities Playbook: Who Benefits—And Who Doesn’t The Dollar, Credit, and Commodities: Second-Order Effects What the Fed Has Said (and Not Said) Key Charts & Data Table Risks to the Rally: Three Things That Could Upend the Narrative Actionable Takeaways FAQ Conclusion...