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Why the Rupee Is Falling: India’s 2025 Capital Account Crisis Explained with Data & Analysis

India's Rupee & Capital Account Analysis

India’s Rupee & Capital Account Analysis (2007–2025)

Visual 1: India’s CAD vs Capital Inflows (2007–2025)

For most years, capital inflows exceeded the CAD → rupee remained stable. But from 2024 onward, capital inflows dipped below CAD, leading to rupee pressure.

Visual 2: FDI Trendline (2019–2025)

Shows a clear collapse from $44 bn → < $1 bn. This indicates structural issues rather than cyclical fluctuations.

Visual 3: FPI Net Flows (2021–2025)

Alternating but mostly negative, with a one-year positive spike. Portfolio investors are increasingly net sellers, not buyers.

Visual 4: Rupee Depreciation vs Capital Flows

Sharp rupee depreciation aligns almost perfectly with capital flow slowdown—not CAD trends.

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