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Do Central Bankers Know Best? Montagu Norman and the BIS

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Central Bank Narrative — Data Viz Gallery

U.S. Central Bank Narrative — Visual Gallery

Four story-driven visuals ready for production — swap the sample arrays with live sources (CME, Treasury/FRED, Bloomberg/H.10, BLS/BEA, NBER).

Fed Funds Futures — Market-Implied Cut Probabilities

Source: CME FedWatch (replace data)
Blue = current week; Gray = previous week. Callout shows 25bp surged.

Yield Curve Spreads — 2s10s & 2s5s (last 12 months)

Sources: U.S. Treasury, FRED, NBER (recessions shaded)
Red = 2s10s, Orange = 2s5s. Vertical line = upcoming FOMC meeting.

USD Index vs Major Peers (normalized)

Sources: Refinitiv/Bloomberg/H.10 — normalize at 100 for comparability
Navy = DXY, Green = GBP, Red = JPY, Purple = CAD, Orange = NOK. Vertical markers = central bank meeting dates.

U.S. Recession Risk Dashboard

Sources: BLS, BEA, NBER, Fed

Payroll Growth (m/m)

Initial Unemployment Claims (weekly)

PCE Inflation YoY (%)

CPI Inflation YoY (%)

Red highlights indicate deterioration; gray shading marks NBER recession dates. Replace sample data with official series for production.

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