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OECD India Outlook 2025 — Growth & Inflation Visuals

OECD India Outlook 2025 — Growth & Inflation Visuals

June 2025 vs September 2025 revisions (OECD data)

🇮🇳

Visual 1 — GDP Growth Forecasts

June 2025: 6.3% | September 2025: 6.7% (+40 bps)

Visual 2 — Inflation Forecast Shift

June 2025: 4.1% → September 2025: 2.9%
4.1% 2.9%
FY25–26 Inflation Down
📉 Food prices eased
⚡ Fuel costs stable
🛒 Expectations easing

Visual 3 — Sectoral Contribution (2025)

Consumption 57% | Investment 32% | Govt 10% | Net Exports –1% (drag)

Visual 4 — Risk Outlook

RiskProbabilityImpactMitigation
U.S. TariffsHighHighDiversification, FTA talks
Oil Price SpikeMediumHighReserves, renewables
Global SlowdownMediumMediumStimulus, demand push
Climate ShockLow–MedHighInsurance, supply mgmt

Visual 4b — 2×2 Impact vs Probability Matrix

High Impact Low Impact High Probability Low Probability Tariffs Oil Growth Climate
Data: OECD forecasts (June vs Sept 2025) — Growth 6.3%→6.7%, Inflation 4.1%→2.9%

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