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Do Central Bankers Know Best? Montagu Norman and the BIS

Global Trade Visuals (2025) — Timelines, Flows, Reserves, Outlook, Sectors

Visuals: Tariff Escalations & Trade Shifts (2025)

A compact dashboard of the five visuals you specified — ready to drop into a page or present.

1) Timeline — Tariff Escalations in 2025

Horizontal timeline with annotations for markets and statements.
Apr 2
Universal 10% baseline tariff announced
📉 S&P dips
May–Jul
Targeted hikes on steel, autos, electronics (25–35%)
⚠️ Supply chain stress 🔁 Repricing & hedging
Aug 27
50% tariffs on India tied to Russian oil purchases
💱 INR volatility 🗣️ BRICS summit statements ✊ Protests
Icons: tariffs ⬆, currencies 💱, protests ✊. Use arrows to annotate market direction.

2) Trade Flows — BRICS vs. U.S./EU (Sankey)

Compare 2023 baseline vs. 2025 YTD after tariff shocks. Teal = BRICS flows; Gray/Blue = U.S./EU.
Annotations: shifts in invoicing (e.g., RMB), alternative routes, thinner ribbons = shrinking corridors.

3) Reserve Shares (2015–2024)

IMF COFER (illustrative): USD ↓ from ~65% → ~58%; Euro ~20%; RMB ↑ from ~1% → ~3%.
Milestones: COVID-19 (2020), Russia sanctions (2022), BRICS expansion (2023). “Small but steady shifts.”

4) WTO Outlook — Merchandise Trade Growth

April 2025 vs. August 2025 revisions; 2026 flat/slight recovery.
Red arrows denote downgrades; green arrows denote upgrades. Values are placeholders — replace with official WTO figures if needed.

5) Tariff Sensitivity by Industry — Sector Heat Map

Rows = sectors; Columns = U.S. demand exposure, BRICS alternative markets, overall risk level.
Sector U.S. Demand Exposure BRICS Alternative Markets Overall Risk Level
🖥️ Electronics High Medium High
🚗 Autos High Medium High
👕 Apparel Medium Medium Medium
🏗️ Metals Medium Low/Opportunity Low
⚡ Energy Medium Low/Opportunity Low
High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk / Opportunity

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