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Do Central Bankers Know Best? Montagu Norman and the BIS

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U.S. Dollar Weakness in 2025: Why Fed Rate Cuts Are Reshaping Global Portfolios

FX Quick Reference — Policy, Dollar, Flows

FX Quick Reference: Policy • Dollar • Flows

Snapshot built from strategy notes — dates through Aug 2025 (selected)
DXY    Real Broad Dollar (FRED)

Dollar Dashboard (select points)

Notes: DXY mid-Aug 2025 ≈ 98. FRED Real Broad Dollar from Mar→Jul 2025: ~120 → ~114.6. Series shown on separate axes; sparse points reflect provided snapshot dates.

Flow Watch

U.S. TIC Net Flows (May)
+ $311.1B
Private inflows offset official outflows
Why it matters: Composition can sway USD even when totals are positive.
Watcher tip: Track who buys (private vs. official), not just the headline.
Pair with your strategic hedging policy (e.g., 50% hedge on developed ex-U.S.; dynamic overlay on EM). Revisit quarterly—or sooner if the Fed surprises.

A) Policy rate timeline (abbreviated)

Period Policy signal
Sep–Dec 2024 Fed lowers target range in three moves (policy pivot begins).
Mar–Jul 2025 Fed maintains 4.25%–4.50%; debates further easing; July statement notes one member preferring a cut.
Abbreviated; intended for quick scan on one slide.

B) Dollar level snapshots

Metric Recent read Comment
DXY (mid-Aug 2025) ~98 Off highs; softer month-over-month.
FRED Real Broad Dollar (Mar → Jul 2025) ~120 → ~114.6 Broad depreciation beyond majors.
IMF assessment (Q1 2025) “Depreciated sharply” from Jan peak; still ~15% above post-2000 avg (Apr) Room for mean reversion if easing continues.
Levels approximate; use for directional context.

C) Flow watch — detail

Indicator Latest detail Why it matters
U.S. TIC flows (May) + $311.1B net (private inflows offset official outflows) Composition of flows can sway USD even when totals are positive.

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